Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
